Last quarter, while greatly lowering EBITDA% expectations for FY 2026, RH management rolled-out ridiculous FY 2030 guidance targets.
Of course, this is a management team that mightily struggles to predict the next 6-7 weeks (see guidance history below). So, predicting the next 3-4 years and the investment community having much faith in those projections is hilarious.
That said, the company’s Q1 2026 guidance is so miserable, that if today’s actual Q1 2026 results come even close to the company’s guidance ranges (especially EBITDA% -760 Bps to -660 Bps vs. LY), RH is facing an even tougher uphill climb than even I suspect.
Therefore, the company should easily crush its financial guidance ranges for Q1 2026.
Of course, the below pic from the company’s home page continues to suggest the descent down the luxury mountain continues for RH.
Below, you’ll find some brief thoughts I sent to clients this week (includes a mention of just how risky this year’s RH Estates roll-out is).
Note that if you wish to receive my RH earnings model and company Data Packet, let me know by sending me an email at Rob@TiburonResearchGroup.com (work email addresses only). Otherwise, you can find it in FactSet.
Here are some select pages from my company Data Packet…
